What’s Really Happening with the Naira, An Educational Update from CertiBridge Research

Dear Investor,

You’re not alone in feeling unsettled.

Oil just slipped to $60.36, the naira is still trading below ₦1,450, and every headline seems to scream a different story. One day it’s “Dangote saves Nigeria,” the next it’s “oil crash incoming.”

We get it.

You’re not looking for hype.

You’re looking for clarity.

This post is not advice.

It’s education, a clear, calm walk-through of what’s actually happening, how we’re thinking about it at CertiBridge, and what we’re doing with our own capital.

No tables. No shouting. Just facts.

The Refinery: A Long Game, Not a Switch

Let’s start with the Dangote Refinery : the single biggest structural change to Nigeria’s economy in decades.

Right now, it’s producing 350,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, mostly diesel and jet fuel. That’s already cutting imports by about $3.5 billion a year.

But petrol, the fuel that powers cars and generators, is only just starting to flow locally. Full substitution? That’s a 2026 story, not 2025.

The real transformation comes in phases:

• By March 2026, output should reach 650,000 barrels per day ,enough to cover all of Nigeria’s petrol needs.

• By 2027–2028, capacity expands to 1.4 million barrels per day, turning Nigeria from a fuel importer into a regional exporter.

This isn’t instant.

But it’s irreversible.

The 15% Import Duty: A Quiet but Powerful Push

Effective tomorrow, November 1, the government is slapping a 15% duty on all imported refined products.

That means:

• A liter of imported petrol just got ₦120–150 more expensive.

• Airlines, truckers, and even NNPC now have a strong incentive to buy from Dangote.

• The government collects ₦1.2–1.5 trillion a year in new revenue — money that goes straight to reserves and debt payments.

This isn’t a silver bullet.

Smuggling won’t vanish overnight.

But it locks in demand for local supply and speeds up the transition.

Oil at $60.36: The Real Stress Test

Here’s the part that’s keeping you up at night.

Oil is down. Hard.

At $60.36, Nigeria’s annual oil revenue drops from ~$38 billion (at $80) to ~$30 billion.

That’s $8 billion less flowing into reserves every year.

But here’s what most headlines miss:

The refinery still makes money at $45 per barrel.

Dangote built it to run on cheap local crude. Even at $60 oil, it keeps producing — and still saves $3–5 billion a year in import costs.

The danger isn’t the refinery.

It’s the rest of the economy, the 90% of exports tied to raw crude.

If oil stays below $60 for months, pressure builds.

If it falls to $50? That’s when things get ugly.

How We’re Positioned (And Why)

At CertiBridge, we don’t chase narratives.

We position for probabilities.

Right now, our internal capital is split like this:

• 20% in naira cash — earning carry, staying liquid.

• 30% in USD cash — our hedge against an oil collapse.

• 5% in gold — inflation and chaos insurance.

• 45% in Bitcoin — asymmetric upside, tiny downside.

No stocks.

No long bonds.

No hero plays.

Why?

Because oil at $60 is a warning light, not a death sentence, but we don’t ignore warnings.

The Path Ahead: What We’re Watching

We don’t predict.

We react.

Here’s what moves the needle for us:

• If customs collects ₦100 billion+ per month from the new duty → we lean slightly more into naira.

• If refinery output crosses 600,000 barrels per day → another small tilt.

• If oil stays under $65 for 60 days → we flip half our naira to USD.

• If DXY breaks 104 → full defensive pivot.

No emotion.

Just rules.

If Oil Crashes to $50: Our Plan

It’s possible.

Here’s what happens — and what we do:

1. Oil revenue → $20–22 billion

2. Naira → ₦1,800–2,000

3. Inflation spikes → CBN hikes rates → bonds fall

4. We go 80% USD + gold

The refinery still runs.

But the country can’t pay its bills.

That’s when discipline matters.

Final Thought: This Isn’t 2023

Three years ago, Nigeria had:

• No local refining

• Fuel subsidies bleeding $15 billion a year

• A pegged currency

• Reserves under $30 billion

Today?

• Refinery online

• Subsidies gone

• Floating rate

• Reserves at $43 billion

• A 15% wall against imports

The structure has changed.

The risks haven’t vanished, but they’re different.

You don’t need to panic.

You don’t need to “all-in” on naira.

You just need to understand the machine.

And right now?

The machine is starting to work, slowly, imperfectly, but undeniably.

We’ll keep watching.

We’ll keep updating.

And we’ll keep our capital ready, not brave, not scared.

Just clear.

Stay calm.

Stay informed.

— The CertiBridge Research Desk

(This is educational content only. Not investment advice. Markets reward patience, not panic.)